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Projections of Permafrost Thaw and Carbon Release for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1901-2299

Overview

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1872
Version1
Project
Published2022-04-20
Updated2022-04-20
Usage3 downloads

Description

This dataset consists of an ensemble of model projections from 1901 to 2299 for the northern hemisphere permafrost domain. The model projections include monthly average values for a common set of diagnostic outputs at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude. The model simulations resulted from a synthesis effort organized by the Permafrost Carbon Network to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the carbon cycle in permafrost regions in the high northern latitudes. The model teams used different historical input weather data, but most used driver data developed by the Climate Research Unit - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRUNCEP) as modified for the Multiscale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The teams scaled the driver data for the projections using output from global climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The synthesis evaluated the terrestrial carbon cycle in the modern era and projected future emissions of carbon under two climate warming scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85) from CMIP5. RCP45 represents emissions resulting in a global climate close to the target climate in the Paris Accord. RCP85 represents unconstrained greenhouse gas emissions.

Science Keywords

  • CLIMATE INDICATORS
  • LAND SURFACE/AGRICULTURE INDICATORS
  • SOIL TEMPERATURE
  • CLIMATE INDICATORS
  • TERRESTRIAL HYDROSPHERE INDICATORS
  • PERMAFROST MELT
  • CLIMATE INDICATORS
  • CLIMATE FEEDBACKS
  • CRYOSPHERIC FEEDBACKS
  • CRYOSPHERE
  • FROZEN GROUND
  • PERMAFROST
  • CLIMATE INDICATORS
  • CARBON FLUX
  • LAND SURFACE
  • SOILS
  • CARBON
  • ATMOSPHERE
  • ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
  • CARBON AND HYDROCARBON COMPOUNDS

Data Use and Citation

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Crosscite Citation Formatter
McGuire, D.A., D.M. Lawrence, C.D. Koven, J.S. Clein, E. Burke, G.S. Chen, E. Jafarov, A.H. MacDougall, S. Marchenko, D.J. Nicolsky, S. Peng, A. Rinke, P. Ciais, I. Gouttevin, D.J. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, J.C. Moore, V.E. Romanovsky, C. Schädel, K. Schaefer, and Q. Zhuang. 2022. Projections of Permafrost Thaw and Carbon Release for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1901-2299. ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1872

This dataset is openly shared, without restriction, in accordance with the EOSDIS Data Use Policy. See our Data Use and Citation Policy for more information.

Data Files

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Companion Files

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Dataset has 2 companion files.

  • readme_models.zip
  • PermafrostThaw_CarbonEmissions.pdf