ID do Resumo: 589

Shorter and Longer-Run Road Impacts On Frontier Deforestation

This paper presents an econometric estimation of frontier deforestation impacts of roads concentrating on a region around the InterOceanic Highway in Brazil, Peru and Bolivia. Data points are pixels, to cover a significant area of the Western Amazon with precision, with the forest data over time derived from spatially detailed satellite measures of forest. The time period considered is 1989 through 2007, broken up roughly into two decades. The spatial coverage of these data permits an informative comparison of three countries which feature different land use and deforestation dynamics though around one highway. The temporal coverage allows informative examination of dynamics changing over time. The central question is how the impact of new roads investments depends on the context. Specifically, we consider whether the effect on deforestation of the InterOceanic linkage, relative to the effects other drives, differs across these countries and across the decades, including when the InterOceanic Highway in Brazil was paved in the period 2002-2004. Results of this type have implications for predicting the impacts of new infrastructures. Preliminary results find that road impacts do vary significantly as a function of context, with the impacts of drivers varying across the countries according to country dynamics and the impacts of the InterOceanic in particular varying over time as dynamics unfold.

Sessão:  Política Pública e o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - Cenários para o desenvolvimento sustentável.

Tipo de Apresentação:  Oral