ID do Resumo: 71

Measuring projections of climate change skill: Amazon Basin precipitation using IPCC models

As history embraces the beginning of a new millennium, old problem still constitute enormous challenges to the population in general, and to the academic world in particular. It is now widely accepted that General Circulation Models (GCMs) represent the most satisfactory technique to answer these challenges (IPCC, 1996). Numerical models (General Circulation Models or GCMs), representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools currently available for simulating the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work analyses the performance of the IPCC models (CCCma, CCSRNIES, CSIRO, GFDL, HACM3, and others) in simulate the present and future climate pattern of the rainfall over the Amazon Basin. In general the models get to reproduce the phase of the annual cycle of the rainfall. In this work was used four common metric are reviewed, the Heidke skill score, relative operating characteristic (ROC) skill score, equitable threat score, and the rank analog.

Sessão:  Retroalimentação ao Clima - Feedbacks sobre monitoriamento da terra, hidrologia e atmosfera. (A)

Tipo de Apresentação:  Oral