Abstract ID: 129

Forecasting the flood-pulse of Amazonian rivers by oceanographic data

The understanding of the interannual variability in meteorological and hydrological patterns in the worlds largest river basins is of high interest because of its importance for general global circulation patterns and in particular for water resource management, transportation, hydroelectricity production and economic activities of the riverine populations. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific are known as to trigger the seasonal precipitation regime in the large watersheds resulting in the flood-pulse of the Amazonian rivers with mean amplitudes of several meters. Thus, a distinct seasonal annual cycle between the aquatic phase and the terrestrial phase is induced in the floodplains, affecting biogeochemical cycles, growth rhythms and life cycles of their biota. Severe floods and drought have huge impacts for the ecosystems of the large river-floodplain systems and socio-economic sectors and there are uncertainties how the intensity and frequency of such extreme events will change in the background of regional and global climate change. Based on multiple regression analysis of Amazonian river water levels and SSTs of the surrounding tropical oceans a forecast of minimum and maximum water levels about 100 days in advance is possible. In this study forecast models for the Negro/Solimões River (Manaus) and Madeira River (Porto Velho) are presented to predict maximum water levels (Manaus) and minimum water levels (Porto Velho). Such models are powerful instruments for discussions about climate change as well as for public policies to develop an effective risk management for the populations living in floodplains and urban regions along the Amazonian rivers.

Session:  Feedbacks to Climate - Land cover, surface hydrology, and atmospheric feedbacks.

Presentation Type:  Poster