Abstract ID: 712

Population Dynamics, Land Use Change and Malaria Prevalence in the Brazilian Amazon

Malaria prevalence has been one of the most dramatic outcomes of the occupation of the Brazilian Amazon as exemplified by Northern Mato Grosso, one of the areas of highest malaria prevalence in the Americas in the early 1990s. This paper associates the dynamics of malaria prevalence in Northern Mato Grosso during the 1990s with three land uses—small-scale gold mining (garimpos), agricultural colonization/cattle ranching (rural), and urban activities—and their related population characteristics, which constitute risk profiles, to the disease. The paper shows how the dynamics of malaria prevalence in the region is closely related to the dynamics of garimpos and new settlement areas. In particular, the spatial proximity of garimpos to rural and urban areas, as well as new settlement areas to urban areas, facilitates an intense circulation of contaminated populations of humans and vectors, thus spreading malaria throughout the study area. The results show that the most dangerous type of malaria (P. falciparum) is associated with garimpos, the areas of higher population mobility, and thus there is a higher potential for the spread of this type of malaria throughout the region. One key method to reach these results is the use of spatial analysis based on GIS, which permits the spatial representation of malaria prevalence and its types by small localities with specific forms of land use. Furthermore, given the importance of garimpos to explain malaria prevalence in Northern Mato Grosso, this paper analyzes factors affecting risk of malaria prevalence among individuals working in garimpos using a stepwise logistic model to identify spatial, intensity of occupational exposure and behavioral factors which affect malaria prevalence. Finally, by contributing to a better understanding of the effects of land use and population mobility on malaria diffusion, this paper aims to inform policies regarding malaria control and population health advancement in the Brazilian Amazon. Keywords: Brazilian Amazon; malaria prevalence; garimpo; rural and urban land use; population mobility

Session:  LCLUC and Human Dimensions - Land-cover and climate change, human population and infections in the Amazon: Current linkages and future risks.

Presentation Type:  Oral