Cattle ranching expansion is one of the main drivers of deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia. The goal of this work is to construct land change multiscale models and scenarios that explicitly incorporate the evolution of the beef and milk market production chains. Our focus is the agricultural frontier expansion in the southeast of Pará State during the last decade. We study in detail the landscape dynamics in the PA 279 area, which includes the municipalities of Agua Azul, Ourilandia, Tucumã and São Felix do Xingu, in which a well organized beef market chain is already installed. Cattle raisers point out fertile soils and humid climate as the main attractive of this area. Cattle herd has increased 780% from 1997 to 2004, and currently has more than 10% of total Pará State herd. In an interdisciplinary effort, the following computational models are being developed using the TerraME environment: (a) Models of beef and milk market networks (at regional scale); (b) Landscape dynamics model, using representative agents of small, medium and large farmers (PA 279); (c) Farm level models of land use and management strategies for different actors (at farm level in selected sites). Qualitative multi-scale scenarios (storylines) are being discussed in parallel, taking into consideration the local actor’s views about the future and possible macro-economic and political contexts. The storylines will then be quantified to provide context to the different scale models. We expect this modeling process can contribute to the understanding of how the market chains influence the territory formation at different scales to better inform decision-making at several levels.

Session:  LCLUC and Human Dimensions - Land-use/land-cover change models and scenarios at multiple scales for Amazonia.

Presentation Type:  Oral