High Resolution Numerical Simulation of the Deforestation Impact in the Cuiba/Santarem Region
Adilson
W.
Gandu, IAG/USP, adwgandu@model.iag.usp.br
(Presenting)
Pedro
Leite
Silva Dias, IAG/USP, pldsdias@master.iag.usp.br
Demerval
S.
Moreira, IAG/USP, demerval@master.iag.usp.br
Several numerical studies have been performed in the last decade on the possible impact of deforestation in the Amazon. However, due to the constraints related to computational power, most studies have considered uniform deforestation over the whole Amazon, a rather unrealistic situation. On the other hand, some numerical studies with higher resolution models have indicated that the mesoscale circulations associated with the pasture/forest contrasts may lead to an increase in the precipitation, an effect opposite to the prevailing decrease of precipitation in the large scale deforestation. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the regional impact of deforestation using idealized scenarios of deforestation along the Cuiba/Santarem highway. The RAMS model is used at a resolution of the order of 15 km in order to study the combined effect of topography, land use, inundated areas and coastal shape in the regional climate. Two experimental settings are discussed. The first is based on short term integrations, with initial condition at rest in order to identify the role of local topographical and land use forcing. The second set is a year long simulation, forced by the coarse resolution reanalysis with the current pasture area substituted by forest and the same type of simulation with the current pasture-forest distribution. Future experiments will be performed with possible future scenarios of deforestation.
Submetido por Pedro Leite Silva Dias em 25-MAR-2004