Biophysical Predictors of Soy Expansion in Mato Grosso state, Brazil
Ellen
Jasinski, University of Maryland, ejasinsk@pop900.gsfc.nasa.gov
(Presenting)
Douglas
Morton, University of Maryland, morton@geog.umd.edu
Ruth
DeFries, University of Maryland, rdefries@geog.umd.edu
Yosio
Shimabukuro, INPE, yosio@ltid.inpe.br
Liana
Anderson, INPE, liana@ltid.inpe.br
Matthew
Hansen, University of Maryland, mhansen@glue.umd.edu
Marcelo
Lopes
Latorre, INPE, latav@ltid.inpe.br
In only three decades of planting, soy has advanced to become Brazil’s principal crop, both in planted area and quantity produced. The state of Mato Grosso (MT) alone has 5.2 million hectares (ha) of soy planted for the 2004 harvest—about 6% of the state’s total land area. This is a 13.4% increase over last year for MT and a 35% increase over 2002. Soy production in MT is increasingly mechanized, with the majority of plantations >1000 ha. Today most agriculturalists consider Brazilian cerrado land merely as potential area for cultivation. Only 1.5% of the cerrado is presently protected within federal reserves. Both cerrado and forest lands in MT are being converted to mechanized agriculture at rates that increase annually. To understand the patterns of this expansion, we compared maps of soy cultivation in MT from the past three years, 2001-2004, using MODIS 250m daily data, with the state’s topography, soils, precipitation statistics, road networks, and pre-soy land cover types. Logistic regressions were conducted for each of these data layers against the soy map in order to discern their relative weight in determining the likelihood of land use conversion to mechanized soy cultivation. Final analyses will give insight into the matrix of environmental conditions that encourage soy expansion in MT, providing inputs for holistic land use transition models and guiding the process of protected area designation.
Submetido por Douglas Morton em 17-MAR-2004
Tema Científico do LBA: LC (Mudanças dos Usos da Terra e da Vegetação)