Study and prediction of malaria distribution at Novo Repartimento municipality-southeast Pará state
Cíntia
Honório
Vasconcelos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)/USP, cintia@ltid.inpe.br
(Presenting)
Cláudia
M.
Almeida, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), almeida@ltid.inpe.br
Evlyn
M.L.Moraes
Novo, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), evlyn@ltid.inpe.br
Climate in the Amazon is connected to the Forest that absorbs solar energy and controls air temperature, atmosphere moisture and in the long run precipitation. Large scale deforestation therefore has been related to evapotranspiration decreases. Forest evapotranspiration is one of the most important sources of water vapor to the atmosphere, and its drastic reduction can lead to less precipitation and to a likely increase in air temperature. These predictions are worrisome, because increases in temperature, promotes the increase in areas apt to the spread of diseases such as malaria. The reduction of atmospheric moisture might inhibit vector proliferation, but surface water availability (rivers, dams) under increased temperature conditions fosters mosquito population outbreak. Malaria is endemic in Amazon and its vector is subject to great ecological diversity displaying a huge adaptation to this diverse environment. As a consequence, climatic changes might result in serious problems in public health. This research, therefore, investigates the relationship between deforestation rates in Novo Repartimento municipality and the risk of acquiring malaria. Malaria incidence for 1996 and 2001 was supplied by National Health Foundation and ground collected data. Based on risk maps produced for 1996 and 2001, a malaria risk prediction map will be produced for the year 2011, simulating several scenarios. LANDSAT 5-TM will be used to map changes in land use and occupation. Temporal distribution of IPA (Annual Parasite Indexes) historical series in Novo Repartimento will be used to determine time trends in malaria incidence and its relationship with land-use changes. Scenario maps will be useful for supporting health public policies in the region, taking into account the lack of human and technical resources available for fighting the disease and the need of focusing those in riskier areas.
Submetido por Cintia Honório Vasconcelos em 17-MAR-2004