Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Models designed to simulate deforestation should therefore incorporate a demographic dynamics system to help project the influence of these variables on the location and rates of deforestation across the basin. We present a demographic model that projects population at municipality level by computing migration fluxes among the Amazonian municipalities and in and outward the region, as well as their gross birth and death rates. The annual projections from 1995 to 2035 are based mainly on demographic data from 1991's and 2000's IBGE census. The model assumes a logistic curve to project the municipalities' gross birth and death rates, which are derived using specific functions of fertility and mortality by age. The input emigration rates and immigration distribution matrix are calculated for the 1995-2000 time period. VESIM, a system-thinking software, is used to implement the model that is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migration.
Submetido por Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia em 18-MAR-2004