Maria
del Carmen
Vera-Diaz, Ipam/Boston University, mcarmen@bu.edu
(Presenting)
Robert
Kaufmann, Boston University, kaufmann@bu.edu
Peter
Schlesinger, Woods Hole Research Center, pschles@whrc.org
Daniel
Curtis
Nepstad, Ipam/Woods Hole Research Center, dnepstad@whrc.org
In the last decade, agribusiness has become one of the main economic forces behind the expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Brazilian Amazon, led by the soybean sector. Between 1990 and 2003, Amazon soybean production, grew from 3 to 14 million tons/year and the area planted increased from 16,000 to 47,000 km2. This expansion has been stimulated by several factors such as growth in international demand for soybean, devaluation of the Brazilian Real, improvements in infrastructure, high productivity in the Cerrado area, and the development of soybean varieties suited to Amazonian climate.
Here, we identify possible areas of agribusiness expansion into the Brazilian Amazon using spatial-econometric models that specifies both physical and economic parameters. The effect of these variables is quantified by estimating an econometric model of soybean yield that includes variables such as inputs, production, prices, transport costs, topography, climate and soils. This model is used afterward as input to estimate potential yields across the basin and these yields are used in conjunction with transportation costs to generate information about agricultural rents. Information about rent is used to locate areas where land is likely to be converted to soybean production.
Preliminary results indicate that infrastructure, topography and inputs prices have an important role to the soybean expansion. In rain forest regions of eastern-central Amazon, the flat relief and the investments in physical infrastructure will facilitate the rapid spread of mechanized agriculture. Economic conditions are being enhanced mainly by multinational agribusiness companies that provide production financing, building storage units and ports, and participating directly in the pavement of important roads as Cuiab�-Santar�m.
Submetido por Maria del Carmen Vera-Diaz em 23-MAR-2004
Tema Cient�fico do LBA: LC (Mudan�as dos Usos da Terra e da Vegeta��o)