Basin-Scale Econometric Modeling I: road endogeneity and road impacts
Alexander
Pfaff, Columbia University, ap196@columbia.edu
(Presenting)
Eustaquio
Reis, IPEA, ejreis@ipea.gov.br
Claudio
Bohrer, Universidade Federal Fluminense, bohrer@vm.uff.br
Juan
Robalino, Columbia University, jar101@columbia.edu
By observing land-cover changes under historical conditions and projecting them into the future, we can evaluate impacts of policies and of economic changes upon Amazonian forest dynamics.
This presentation is the first one to report upon the earliest basin-scale research within the project “A Basin-Scale Econometric Model for Projecting Future Amazonian Landscapes”. This talk will focus on endogeneity of roads, i.e. roads result from decisions at given times for specific reasons.
This is of course the case. Yet this obvious statement motivates some analysis of those decisions, in particular efforts to distinguish parts of road networks in terms of who created them and why. Project team members have been studying precisely these questions within the historical record.
For empirical analyses of deforestation at basin scale, this question suggests additional analyses. First, when data exist over time, we can explore what the data suggest might lead to road creation. Building upon our team’s efforts to establish measures of changes in the road network over time, we examine empirically what land-use settings are the most likely to give rise to additional roads.
Second, this question leads us to revisit the crucial issue of the impact of roads on forest clearing. When the location of additions to the road network is acknowledged to be driven by other factors, inferring the effects of roads on deforestation versus effects of the other factors is more complex. We will present first steps to address this issue to improve our estimation of the impacts of roads.
Submetido por Alexander Pfaff em 18-MAR-2004
Tema Científico do LBA: LC (Mudanças dos Usos da Terra e da Vegetação)