Basin-Scale Econometric Modeling II: spatial disaggregation and spatial impacts
Alexander
Pfaff, Columbia University, ap196@columbia.edu
(Presenting)
Eustaquio
Reis, IPEA, ejreis@ipea.gov.br
Claudio
Bohrer, Universidade Federal Fluminense, bohrer@vm.uff.br
Juan
Robalino, Columbia University, jar101@columbia.edu
Regional landscape projections constitute a valuable tool for identifying policies that can address the development needs of Amazonian populations while minimizing loss of ecosystem integrity. By estimating the probability of forest clearing as a function of factors that affect profitability, we can generate projections of land cover across the basin for a suite of different scenarios.
This presentation is the second reporting upon the earliest basin-scale research within the project “A Basin-Scale Econometric Model for Projecting Future Amazonian Landscapes”. This talk will focus on spatial disaggregation within basin-scale modeling, starting with use of census tract data and, from this vantage point, also adding questions about regional processes and spatial patterns.
Most empirical work at basin scale within the Brazilian Amazon has been at the municipio level. The availability of relevant socioeconomic information from the census has dictated this choice. Here we examine the question of road and other impacts on deforestation at census tract level. While for now we use this significantly disaggregated census data for only one point in time, these first efforts are a good robustness check and set the stage for extending to more points.
In addition, the greater number of spatial units of smaller size sets the stage for other questions. First, with more observations per region, it is more feasible to estimate regional differences. Second, within smaller units, it is more sensible to consider spatial patterns of deforestation. Based on satellite data, we explore fragmentation and its relation to socioeconomic factors.
Submetido por Alexander Pfaff em 18-MAR-2004
Tema Científico do LBA: LC (Mudanças dos Usos da Terra e da Vegetação)