Amazon scenarios: modeling the interactions of ecosystems, climate, and land use
Daniel
Curtis
Nepstad, Woods Hole Research Center, Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazonia, UFPa/NAEA, dnepstad@whrc.org
(Presenting)
Britaldo
Silveira
Soares Filho, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, britaldo@csr.ufmg.br
Ane
Auxiliadora
Alencar, Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazonia, ane@ipam.org.br
In 1998, a group of researchers initiated the “Amazon Scenarios Project” to develop policy-sensitive simulations of future trends in land cover, economic prosperity, climate, and ecological processes. The land use modeling component has evolved from spatial statistical approaches to rent-based modeling of competing economic activities. Global (GCM) and regional (RAMS) climate models simulations are run on simulated land cover scenarios, providing inputs (radiation, rainfall, temperature, RH) to the ecosystem model, CARLUC. This process-based model tracks forest disturbances (fire, logging), and adjusts the allocation of NPP to wood, litter and roots in response to drought. Fires are simulated depending upon disturbance and rainfall history, and proximity to fire-dependent land use activities. Responses of surface water flow to land use and climate interactions, and reductions in vertebrate ranges are also estimated.