Abstract ID: 587

Economic and ecological trade-offs in an expanding agro-industrial frontier: Policy scenarios in the southeastern Amazon’s Xingu River headwaters

The rapid expansion of agro-industry in the southeastern Amazon is driven by increasing links to global commodity markets. Environmental legislation designed to regulate the impact of this growth has met with limited success. In this study, we evaluated the economic and ecological trade-offs of the Brazilian Forest Code—along with alternatives adapted from this policy—in protecting native vegetation cover, while permitting development of important economic activities in the study region. We developed an integrated land-use model of the Xingu River headwaters region—where much of the southeastern Amazon’s agro-industrial expansion is taking place—that simulates the growth of mechanized cultivation and cattle ranching and other land-use outcomes associated with different land-use policies over 30 years. We compared a baseline scenario to (1) a landscape assuming perfect compliance under current requirements (i.e., landowners are required to maintain 80% of their land in a legal reserve in the Amazon forest biome), and (2) a landscape assuming a reduction in the rate of deforestation to zero by 2015. The maps were used to evaluate each scenario’s impact on ecological (e.g., habitat fragmentation, carbon emissions) and socioeconomic (e.g., rent, employment) indicators. We also assessed the likely costs for restoration of riparian zones and legal reserve areas to meet (1) current legal requirements and (2) other proposals’ requirements. Furthermore, we estimated the necessary price per ton of carbon needed (1) to compensate landowners for the opportunity cost of maintaining land in forest (ca. US$12/ton) and (2) to off-set the costs of forest restoration (ca. US$9/ton). We estimated that if the region were to be reforested to meet current legal requirements, approximately 0.2 Pg of carbon would be sequestered—nearly equivalent to one year’s emissions from the entire Amazon basin. We also assess the qualitative costs and benefits for different stakeholders in the region.

Session:  LCLUC and Human Dimensions - Current and future trends of land-use/land-cover change and agricultural intensification.

Presentation Type:  Oral