Abstract ID: 522

MODELLING ATMOSPHERIC SUSCEPTIBILITY TO WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT UNDER PRESENT DAY AND GREENHOUSE WARMING CONDITIONS

Based upon climate simulations conducted with a regional atmospheric model asynchronously coupled with a potential vegetation model (Cook and Vizy 2008), this presentation aims to discuss the atmospheric susceptibility to wildfire development for two distinct epochs: present day and greenhouse warming. By applying the Lower Atmospheric Severity Index (Haines Index), we have found that under greenhouse warming (GHG) conditions the Amazon region experiences substantial modification in the area susceptible to widfire development as compared to present day conditions. Moreover, the potential magnitude/intensity of the expected wildfire increases. These changes are primary associated to the dieback of the rainforest as well as is caused by increase in temperaure of the warmest month. It might be noted that remarkable changes of the seasonal cycle as predicted to occur in the GHG simulation is another source to define the new wildfire map.

Session:  Fire - Fire, drought, and changes in vegetation structure and composition

Presentation Type:  Poster