Abstract ID: 1

Does climate change mean it is not worth reducing deforestation in Amazonia?

Some climate models, particularly the Met Office Hadley Centre model, predict an extreme drying and warming climate in Amazonia over the 21st century, leading to a simulated loss of forest cover - the so-called 'Amazon die-back' model result. This has been used by some to suggest that policies designed to reduce deforestation in Amazonia are not worthwhile as mechanisms for mitigating carbon emissions. This presentation examines the uncertainties in these model projections, compares the timing of climate-induced 'die-back' with that of projected 'business-as-usual' deforestation, and also examines the implications of forest fragmentation for resilience of the forest under climate change. It is concluded that climatically-induced loss of the Amazonian forests is not a foregone conclusion, and that even in the worst case scenario of rapid 'die-back', this is sufficiently far into the future compared to projected deforestation rates that there is still a net benefit from reducing deforestation at an early stage. Moreover, under intermediate scenarios of a drying climate, reduced deforestation could confer net benefits on resilience of the forest and maintenance of a moister, cooler climate. This would therefore reduce the chances of further forest loss under climate change. Reducing deforestation in Amazonia would therefore still be likely to provide an effective means of reducing carbon emissions even in the face of ongoing climate change.

Session:  LCLUC and Human Dimensions - Sustainable forest management.

Presentation Type:  Oral